Rare Earth Demand
Who needs which rare earths, how much is consumed, and how fast demand will grow. Electromobility and wind energy are the main growth drivers.
Supply vs. demand for magnetic rare earths (NdPr equiv.)
Source: IEA, USGS 2025, proprietary estimates · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP
Demand by sector and element
Rare earth consumption intensity across industrial sectors. ●●● = high dependency, ●● = medium, ● = low, — = not used.
| Sector | Nd | Pr | Dy | Tb | La | Ce | Sm | Y | Gd | Sc | Value share | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV motors (PM) | ●●● | ●●● | ●●● | ●● | — | — | — | — | — | — | 35–40 | Fastest growth |
| Wind turbines (DD) | ●●● | ●●● | ●● | ● | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20–25 | Stable growth (offshore) |
| Industrial motors | ●●● | ●● | ●● | ● | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10–15 | Stable |
| Consumer electronics | ●● | ● | ● | — | ● | ● | — | ● | — | — | 5–8 | Slightly declining |
| Defense / aerospace | ●● | ● | ●●● | ●● | — | — | ●●● | ●● | ● | ●● | 5–7 | Strategically critical |
| Robotics / AI / datacenter | ●● | ● | ● | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3–5 | Fastest emerging |
| Automotive catalysts | — | — | — | — | ●●● | ●●● | — | — | — | — | 3–5 | Declining (EV) |
| Oil refining (FCC) | — | — | — | — | ●●● | ●●● | — | ● | — | — | 3–5 | Stable |
| Polishing (glass, Si) | — | — | — | — | — | ●●● | — | — | — | — | 2–3 | Stable |
| NiMH batteries | — | — | — | — | ●●● | ● | — | — | — | — | 2–3 | Declining (Li-ion) |
| Phosphors / LED | — | — | — | ● | — | ● | — | ●●● | ● | — | 1–2 | Declining (LED efficiency) |
| MRI / medicine | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ● | ●●● | — | 1–2 | Stable |
| Optical fibers | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ● | — | — | <1 | Stable (Er-doped) |
| Aerospace alloys (Al-Sc) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ●●● | <1 | Growth |
| Nuclear energy | — | — | ● | — | — | — | ● | ● | ●● | — | <1 | Stable |
Source: company specifications, IEA 2025 · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP
Material intensity of key technologies
How many kilograms of neodymium magnets (NdFeB) each technology requires. Click on a card for detailed element content.
Source: motor and turbine manufacturers, IEA 2025 · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP
Rare earth demand projections
Comparison of projections from different sources and scenarios. CAGR = compound annual growth rate. All major scenarios point to significant demand growth by 2030.
| Source / Scenario | Metric | 2024 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEA STEPS | Clean energy mineral demand (index) | 1.0x | ~2.0x | ~2.5x | ~3.0x | ~7% |
| IEA NZE | Clean energy mineral demand (index) | 1.0x | ~2.8x | ~3.5x | ~4.5x | ~10% |
| McKinsey | Magnetic REE (kt) | ~59 | ~100 | ~176 | n/a | ~7–8% |
| Adamas Intelligence | Magnetic REE oxide market (bn USD) | ~10 | ~25 | ~45 | ~68 | ~13% |
| Bloomberg Intelligence | Chinese NdPr refining share (%) | ~90% | ~69% | n/a | n/a | — |
| Deloitte | EV sector demand (index) | 1.0x | ~2.0x | ~3.5x | 4.0–8.0x | ~10–15% |
| Adamas Intelligence | Unmet demand (bn USD) | ~0 | ~2 | ~5 | >7 | — |
| EU CRMA target | Domestic mining (% of EU consumption) | <3% | ≥10% | n/a | n/a | — |
| EU CRMA target | EU processing (% of consumption) | <5% | ≥40% | n/a | n/a | — |
| EU CRMA target | Recycling (% of consumption) | <1% | ≥25% | n/a | n/a | — |
Source: IEA, USGS 2025, proprietary estimates · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP