Rare Earth Price Analysis

Historical monthly rare earth oxide price data in USD/kg. Select elements and time periods for comparison.

Source: monthly rare earth oxide price data 2014–2025 · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP

Key findings from price data

Correlation with Brent crude = 0.09 — rare earths are a geopolitical, not a cyclical commodity. Their prices do not respond to the business cycle but to Chinese export controls and industrial policy.

Dysprosium is the most volatile element. In 2011, its price exceeded 3,000 USD/kg. Today it trades around 300 USD/kg, but new Chinese export controls from 2025 could trigger another price shock.

Terbium and dysprosium are strongly correlated (0.69) — both are used in permanent magnets. Praseodymium follows a similar trend (correlation with Dy = 0.53).

Monthly returns correlation matrix

Shows how strongly element prices move together. Value 1.0 = perfect correlation, 0 = no relationship.

Ce
Dy
Pr
Tb
La
Sm
Gd
Eu
REO
Brent
Ce
1.00
-0.08
0.18
0.09
0.67
0.13
0.11
0.30
0.04
0.20
Dy
-0.08
1.00
0.53
0.69
0.05
0.10
0.62
0.17
0.38
0.09
Pr
0.18
0.53
1.00
0.56
0.30
0.27
0.72
0.26
0.72
0.15
Tb
0.09
0.69
0.56
1.00
0.24
0.18
0.53
0.27
0.48
0.12
La
0.67
0.05
0.30
0.24
1.00
0.14
0.24
0.28
0.21
0.19
Sm
0.13
0.10
0.27
0.18
0.14
1.00
0.18
0.14
0.22
0.03
Gd
0.11
0.62
0.72
0.53
0.24
0.18
1.00
0.19
0.46
0.14
Eu
0.30
0.17
0.26
0.27
0.28
0.14
0.19
1.00
0.05
0.13
REO
0.04
0.38
0.72
0.48
0.21
0.22
0.46
0.05
1.00
0.05
Brent
0.20
0.09
0.15
0.12
0.19
0.03
0.14
0.13
0.05
1.00

Source: correlation of monthly rare earth oxide returns 2014–2025 · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP