Rare Earth Geopolitics
Export controls, Western responses, and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). Rare earths are a strategic weapon — whoever controls them has leverage over the entire industry.
Chronology of export controls and geopolitical events
Key moments that shaped the global rare earth market. Click on a type to filter.
Unofficial embargo on REE exports to Japan
Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute
Prices +750%; global wake-up call
Formal export quotas and tariffs
Supply control
China loses WTO case (2014)
Abolition of quotas; shift to domestic regulation
WTO compliance
Domestic quota system established
Consolidation of Big Six → duopoly (CREG + CNRE)
Price control
More effective supply and price management
License requirements for Ga and Ge exports
Signal measure; infrastructure test
Precedent for REE controls
CRMA enters into force
Reducing dependency
60 strategic projects; 2030 targets
Licenses for 7 REE (Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc, Y) + magnets
Retaliation for Trump tariffs
Immediate supply impact; EU prices +200%
DoD acquires 15% stake in MP Materials
Building US supply chain
Price floor 110 USD/kg NdPr
Congress: >7 bn USD for critical minerals
One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Largest US investment in REE
Controls on 12+ REE; technology export ban; extraterritorial reach
Trade war escalation
Chinese variant of US FDPR; re-export with ≥0.1% CN REE requires license
Partial suspension of October controls for 1 year
Tactical flexibility
April license regime remains; uncertainty persists
RESourceEU: +3 bn EUR for magnets and batteries
Strengthening CRMA
Targeting downstream chain
MSP → FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement)
Multilateral platform transformation
15 countries, 32 projects (10 REE)
Source: USGS, MOFCOM China, EU Official Journal, US DoD, company announcements · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP
EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) — 2030 target progress
CRMA sets minimum EU shares for mining, processing, and recycling of critical raw materials. Most targets appear difficult to achieve.
% of annual EU consumption from EU mines
Gap: ~7 pp
Fen (NO), Per Geijer (SE)
% of annual consumption processed in EU
Gap: ~35 pp
Silmet (EE), Solvay (FR), Eneabba?
% of annual consumption from recycling
Gap: ~24 pp
CAREMAG (FR), IOCB (CZ), HyProMag (UK)
Max. % from a single third country
Gap: ~20–33 pp
Lynas (AU→EU), MP Materials (US), Serra Verde (BR)
Number of approved projects
Gap: —
47 announced 03/2025 + further waves
Max. duration for strategic projects
Gap: Massive acceleration
Depends on member states
Source: EU CRMA (Regulation 2024/1252), national energy strategies · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP
Global rare earth producers
Overview of key countries by share of mining, refining, and strategic positioning.
Mining: 270,000 t
Refining: ~91% global
Magnets: ~94% global
Strategy: Production quotas; export licenses (2025); consolidation into duopoly
CNRE, CREG, JL Mag, ZKSH
Mining: 45,000 t
Refining: ~1% (growing)
Magnets: <1% (building)
Strategy: DoD investment; 7+ bn USD; CN magnet ban in defense from 2027
MP Materials, Energy Fuels
Mining: 31,000 t
Refining: 0
Magnets: 0
Strategy: No regulation; illegal mining; armed conflict
Ethnic militias + Chinese traders
Mining: 13,000 t
Refining: ~4% (Lynas MY)
Magnets: 0
Strategy: Government loans (Iluka 1.65 bn AUD); export controls
Lynas, Iluka, Arafura
Source: USGS 2025, national statistical offices · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP