Scenarios and Risks
What happens when China restricts rare earth exports? Four scenarios from mild tightening to full technological decoupling. Interactive simulation of price and availability impact.
Baseline Scenario: Continuation of current trends
China continues gradual tightening of export controls. Non-Chinese projects are realized with 2–3 year delays. Deficit occurs around 2028.
💰 Price impact
+30–50% by 2030
📦 Supply
Mild deficit from 2028
🇪🇺 EU impact
CRMA targets met at 30–40%
🇨🇿 Czech Republic impact
Increased costs, no disruptions
Simulation: How bad could it get?
Move the slider to simulate varying degrees of Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports.
Price multiplier
2.5×
Estimated dysprosium oxide price
575 USD/kg
Impact on EV motor price
+1.2 %
Vulnerability index — radar chart
Comparison of selected element vulnerability across four dimensions. 5 = highest risk. Click on an element to add/remove from the chart.
| Element | Mining concentration | Refining concentration | Substitutability | Recyclability | Market price volatility | Strategic importance | Score | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neodymium (Nd) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 28 | CRITICAL — core of magnets, minimal substitution |
| Praseodymium (Pr) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 24 | HIGH — inseparable from Nd in practice |
| Dysprosium (Dy) | ~9000 | ~9800 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 32 | EXTREME — 99% separation in CN; price spread 3–6× |
| Terbium (Tb) | ~9000 | ~9800 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 32 | EXTREME — alternative to Dy, same concentration |
| Samarium (Sm) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20 | HIGH — SmCo magnets, defense applications |
| Lanthanum (La) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | LOW — abundant, multiple substitutes |
| Cerium (Ce) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | LOW — most abundant REE, broad substitution |
| Yttrium (Y) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 18 | MEDIUM — ceramics, lasers, phosphors |
| Gadolinium (Gd) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 18 | MEDIUM — MRI contrast agents, nuclear |
| Europium (Eu) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | LOW/MEDIUM — LEDs replacing CFLs; declining demand |
| Scandium (Sc) | ~6000 | ~7000 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | MEDIUM — Al-Sc alloys; limited market |
| Erbium (Er) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | MEDIUM — EDFA optical fibers; critical for internet |
| Lutetium (Lu) | ~5100 | ~8300 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | LOW/MEDIUM — PET scanners; very small market |
Source: USGS 2025, proprietary calculations · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP
Historical examples of successful substitution
Price and availability pressure on rare earths has already led to successful material substitution in the past. These cases show that substitution is possible — but requires time, investment, and often a performance trade-off.
Europium → LED lighting
Europium was essential for red phosphors in fluorescent lamps. The transition to LED technology eliminated most demand. Europium price fell by 95% from the 2011 peak.
Success: complete replacement
Reducing dysprosium in magnets
After the 2011 price crisis, companies like TDK and Shin-Etsu developed neodymium magnets with 50% less dysprosium using grain boundary diffusion technology. Performance was preserved.
Success: partial (reduction, not elimination)
Ferrite magnets in small motors
For less demanding applications (home appliances, fans), neodymium magnets were replaced by cheaper ferrite magnets. Unsuitable for EVs — too low power per kilogram.
Success: partial (low-power applications only)
Motors without permanent magnets
BMW (iX3), Renault (Zoe), and Chinese BYD use externally excited synchronous motors or reluctance motors without rare earths in some models. Efficiency trade-off of 3–5%.
Success: in progress (marginal adoption so far)
Replacing neodymium in high-performance magnets
Despite decades of research, there is no alternative to neodymium magnets for wind turbines and high-performance electric motors. Iron-nitride and manganese magnets remain at the laboratory stage.
Success: no viable alternative
Source: Shin-Etsu, TDK, motor manufacturer annual reports, academic literature · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP