Rare Earth Elements
Interactive overview of the global rare earth elements market
David Navrátil · Money, Rates & Prosperity · Chief Economist at Česká spořitelna
Rare earth elements is a group of 17 metallic elements essential for every electric vehicle, wind turbine, smartphone, and guided missile. Paradoxically, they are not geologically rare — what is rare is the ability to economically mine, separate, and process them into industrially usable materials. Today, this ability belongs almost exclusively to China.
This analysis maps the entire value chain from ore to finished magnet, identifies critical points of dependency, and models scenarios for what happens when the supply chain is disrupted.
"Whoever controls rare earths controls the technological future. And today, one country controls them."
Key Findings
China controls 69% of mining but 91–98% of rare earth processing — the real dependency lies in refining, not in mines.
Demand for magnetic rare earths (neodymium, dysprosium) will grow by 7–13% annually driven by electromobility and wind energy.
From 2026 a structural deficit is expected — supply outside China cannot keep up with demand growth.
Rare earths are not a price problem. Even a threefold price increase adds less than 1% to the price of an electric vehicle.
The main risk is availability, not price. China's 2025 export controls could halt supplies to Europe.
Supply vs. demand for magnetic rare earths (NdPr equiv.)
Source: IEA, USGS 2025, proprietary estimates · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP
China's rare earth balance
Source: USGS 2025, MII China, proprietary estimates · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP
"Rare earths are not a price problem — they are an availability problem."
Even a threefold price increase adds less than 1% to the price of an electric vehicle. The real risk is that supplies simply stop flowing.
Rare earth cost pass-through to products
| Product | REE cost | Product price | REE share | Impact of 3× price increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEV sedan | ~90–130 | 35 000–45 000 | 0.2–0.4% | +$150–300 (+0.5%) |
| BEV SUV dual | ~200–350 | 50 000–70 000 | 0.3–0.5% | +$300–600 (+0.7%) |
| Offshore turbine 12MW | ~80k–120k | 15–20 mil. | 0.5–0.8% | +$150k–250k (+1.2%) |
| Industrial robot | ~130–200 | 50k–150k | 0.1–0.3% | +$200–400 |
| F-35 fighter jet | ~500k+ | ~80 mil. | <1% | Irrelevant |
| Smartphone | ~$0.50 | ~$800–1200 | <0.1% | Negligible |
Source: calculations based on component market prices and rare earth spot prices · Analysis: David Navrátil / PPP