About the Project
Who is behind the analysis, where the data comes from, and what methodology was used.
Chief Economist at Česká spořitelna
This interactive analysis was created as background material for understanding the strategic importance of rare earths in the context of geopolitical changes, the energy transition, and EU industrial policy. The aim is to make the complex topic of raw material security accessible in a clear, data-driven format.
Rare Earth Elements
17 elements forming the rare earth group — 15 lanthanides plus scandium (Sc) and yttrium (Y).
| Symbol | Name | At. number | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sc | Scandium | 21 | spec. |
| Y | Yttrium | 39 | HREE |
| La | Lanthanum | 57 | LREE |
| Ce | Cerium | 58 | LREE |
| Pr | Praseodymium | 59 | LREE |
| Nd | Neodymium | 60 | LREE |
| Pm | Promethium | 61 | — |
| Sm | Samarium | 62 | LREE |
| Eu | Europium | 63 | LREE |
| Gd | Gadolinium | 64 | HREE |
| Tb | Terbium | 65 | HREE |
| Dy | Dysprosium | 66 | HREE |
| Ho | Holmium | 67 | HREE |
| Er | Erbium | 68 | HREE |
| Tm | Thulium | 69 | HREE |
| Yb | Ytterbium | 70 | HREE |
| Lu | Lutetium | 71 | HREE |
Abbreviations used
Methodology
The analysis is based on consolidation of publicly available data from leading global institutions. Price data are monthly rare earth oxide quotations in USD/kg from publicly available sources.
The correlation matrix is calculated from monthly returns for the period 2014–2025.
The vulnerability index combines five dimensions (weighted according to the EU CRMA methodology — Critical Raw Materials Act):
- Supply concentration — degree of dependency on a single supplier (HHI index)
- Substitutability — existence of substitute materials or technologies
- Recyclability — share of secondary production from waste
- Price volatility — historical price fluctuation (12M annualized)
- Strategic importance — role in key technologies (defense, energy, electromobility)
Resulting score 0–30 points. The higher, the more vulnerable the element. Dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) achieve the highest values due to extreme mining concentration and irreplaceability in permanent magnets.
Data Sources
- USGS 2025— production, reserves, and supply structure of rare earths
- IEA— demand projections by energy transition scenarios
- Public price sources— historical rare earth oxide prices (monthly series)
- Proprietary estimates and calculations— supply chain analysis, project pipeline, demand projections
- EU CRMA— Critical Raw Materials Act, 2030 benchmark targets
Disclaimer
All data is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Projections are based on currently available data and assumptions, which are subject to change.