Dva problémy po úspěchu: proč globální růst mění povahu chudoby
Většina lidstva se blíží hranici deseti dolarů denně. Za tímto milníkem se mění povaha chudoby i laťka, podle níž lidé soudí stát.
Read on Substack Interactive analyses of geopolitics, economics, and technology risks
A map for a world that stopped making sense
I look for structure in the chaos of polycrisis. I build interactive analyses at the intersection of megatrends, geopolitical risks, and global bottlenecks, from AI to supply chains to the future of Europe. Not to make the world look simpler. But to make it possible to decide.
Chief Economist at Česká spořitelna (Erste Group) · author of the newsletter Money, rates & prosperity
New analyses, commentary, and context. For people who don't just want to follow headlines, but understand what they mean.
Analyses
Not opinions. Orientation.
Each analysis connects data, scenarios, and visual logic. Not to impress. But to think with.
Food Shock 2026-27: From Costly Inputs to the Harvest
A scenario analysis of when fertilizer constraints, El Niño and a weaker European harvest can turn into pressure on food prices, inflation and interest rates. Six gates between the urea price and the shopping basket.
Urea prices calmed down. Physical flows did not. Food prices for 2027 may be decided before the shopping basket gets more expensive.
Open analysis
Eight Centimetres That Mean Nothing
The Rhine at Kaub in summer 2026: why the most-quoted number says nothing, where the river actually carries its freight, and why a project with a 30.7 benefit-cost ratio has waited thirteen years.
The river carries the same amount of water. What is shrinking is the number of days it can be used. And the rock is not the cause, the rock is the alibi.
Open analysis
Opportunity vs. Threat: How the Brain Switches Under Pressure
The same situation can trigger performance mobilization or defensive rigidity. An interactive analysis of the neurobiology, physiology, and cognitive consequences of challenge/threat framing, backed by meta-analytic data.
The difference between challenge and threat isn’t in the situation. It’s in the mind.
Open analysis
Czech Regional Prosperity Index
49 indicators, 206 regions. Interactive analysis: what drives quality of life in Czech cities and how it shapes elections.
In Orlová, one in eight faces foreclosure. 37 km away, four times fewer.
Open analysisNot another commentary. A tool you'll come back to in a month.
Scenarios, not impressions
I don't just tell you what happened. I show what could happen next.
Data with structure
Charts and maps aren't decoration. They're arguments you can see.
Real-world impact
From geopolitics through supply chains to the Czech economy and corporate decision-making.
What recently went out to subscribers
From recent issues
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Když AI zkrátí dva týdny průzkumu na odpoledne, nemusí to znamenat, že budeme myslet méně. Mění se ale cena jednotlivých částí myšlení. A tím i to, které z nich…
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Jeff Bezos a alchymie fixního nákladu
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Loď stále pluje. Jen už skoro nic neveze.
Nízká voda na Rýnu ukazuje, jak pár centimetrů může změnit ekonomiku celé průmyslové tepny.
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Morální účetnictví: Co si počít s Haberem?
Pomohl nakrmit miliardy lidí a zároveň organizoval chemickou válku. Problém není určit správné váhy jeho zásluh a viny. Ale zjistit, zda je vůbec lze sečíst.…
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Nová geografie nedostatku
Technologie nedostatek neodstraňuje. Jen mění mapu toho, na čem jsme závislí.
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Továrna a mapa
Technologie dokáže rozšířit hranice možností, ale sama nerozhodne, zda novou moc použijeme k prosperitě, nebo k dobývání.
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Vzduch, který nakrmil svět
Haber–Bosch nenaučil lidstvo žít bez nedostatku. Naučil nás přesouvat jeho hranice.
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Íliada 2/2: síla, která potřebuje hranici
Síla vítězí v souboji, ale řád začíná až ve chvíli, kdy se vítěz dokáže zastavit.
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About me
Chief Economist at Ceska sporitelna (Erste Group) and Head of Strategic Research & Insight.
I'm Chief Economist at Ceska sporitelna and lead the Strategic Research & Insight team. I focus on how the economy changes under pressure from technology, geopolitics, demographics, and institutions.
I don't write to add another opinion to the cycle. I'm interested in where reality breaks: in supply chains, energy prices, investor psychology, and how states and companies respond to uncertainty.
That's why, beyond writing, I build interactive analyses. Some things can only be understood when you can move the pieces yourself.
Chief Economist, Ceska sporitelna (Erste Group) · Regular media commentator (Czech TV, CNN Prima, HN)
Speaking
Talks that build the picture, not summarize the headlines
For companies, conferences, and leadership teams, I prepare keynotes, discussions, and workshops on macroeconomics, geopolitics, AI, and the future of business.
Geopolitical risks for businesses
AI and the future of work
What the end of cheap globalization means for Europe
50+ talks per year
15+ years in media
Let's collaborate
Need a tailored analysis, interactive tool, or a keynote? Get in touch.